Revenue leak

David Bassanese – Betashares | 23 February 2026

Each week we highlight commentary we think is useful for investors.

Summary (from Betashares): Markets steadied last week with no fresh “AI disruption” shock to the broader tech complex, but the bigger development landed over the weekend: a US Supreme Court ruling limiting the use of emergency powers to impose across-the-board tariffs for revenue purposes. With Iran risk still simmering and rate expectations sensitive to incoming data, the week ahead is likely to be driven as much by policy and geopolitics as by economics.

Global week in review

• Equities: A modest rebound after the prior week’s decline, helped by a quieter AI newsflow overall.
• Rates: Fed minutes read a little more hawkish than expected, though markets still leaned to rate cuts later this year.
• Data: US activity indicators were generally firm, keeping bond markets a bit jumpy.
• Oil risk: Ongoing US–Iran tensions continued to put upward pressure on oil prices.

Supreme Court tariff ruling: why it matters

The Supreme Court decision found that across-the-board tariff hikes implemented under emergency powers (for revenue purposes) were invalid, reinforcing that Congress ultimately controls tariff-setting for revenue. Other tariffs justified on national security or unfair trade grounds were not necessarily affected. Markets will now focus on what this means for existing trade arrangements, the pathway for future tariffs, and the inflation/growth implications.

What to watch this week

• Tariff fallout: How the ruling reshapes US trade deals and the scope for tariff changes.
• Geopolitics: Iran-related risks remain a potential volatility trigger (particularly via oil).
• US data: A lighter calendar (regional surveys, consumer confidence and producer prices).

Australia in brief

Australian shares bounced, supported by another solid labour market print. Attention turns to inflation signals (with markets naturally fixating on the trimmed mean) and the “building blocks” data for growth. If inflation stays sticky, rate expectations can reprice quickly.

Source: Read “Revenue leak” on Betashares

Published with the kind permission of Betashares and David Bassanese.