FNArena’s Weekly Insights – November 11 2024
In this week’s Weekly Insights:
-Preparing For The Trump Years
-All-Weather Model Portfolio
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
Preparing For The Trump Years
Whether we love or loathe him, the return of Donald Trump to the White house on January 20th next year will mark one pivotal moment in modern day history, when existing trends and geopolitical currents shall be transformed into a new reality and future blue print.
As also indicated by management at Breville Group ((BRG)) last week, preparations have already started, even though uncertainty still rules about what exactly a second Trump term might look like. Won’t be the first ttime a politician might find execution and delivery on outlandish promises made a lot trickier once in office.
As investors, we have witnessed a number of similar pivots throughout the two decades past, from China’s emergence on the global stage, to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007/09 and the covid pandemic in early 2020. Each of these events changed the course of history and left an imprint on financial markets that still resonates today.
Consider the average price of crude oil throughout the 1990s had been no higher than US$15.67/bbl (WTI) while the average for gold bullion for that decade is only US$351/oz. I still remember representatives of BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale returning from annual negotiations with Chinese steel manufacturers, having agreed upon an iron ore contract price in the US$20s per tonne.
In the share market, there’s a noticeable distinction between the outperformers pre-GFC and the momentum switch that has favoured a different type of businesses since. This has simultaneously led to different investment styles and strategies performing best.
Can Trump 2.0 turn into a similar event that profoundly changes the course of history beyond 2024?
