FNArena’s Weekly Insights – March 09 2020

According to the ruling narrative, the current bull market for global equities started in March 2009, is thus almost eleven years old and it looks like it might come to an end in similar fashion as the previous bull market that started in 2003 and finished with a spectacular fall of -50% (or more) between late 2007 and early March 2009.

That narrative, however, though popular and dominant, is based upon an extremely narrow and subjective assessment of what has occurred in global financial markets over the period.

On my analysis, which I think is more accurate and useful for investors, the current Bear Market is the fourth since the really big one in 2007-2009. The first conclusion therefore should not be that something extraordinary is happening in markets today.

Central bankers might be inclined to think they have managed the post-GFC period rather splendidly, but in reality economies and financial markets have become more vulnerable to regularly re-occurring shocks.

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