Bassanese Bites: Trade tantrum – August 05 2019

Global equities slumped last week reflecting two negative events: disappointment with regard to Fed guidance and Trump’s new tariffs.  A flight to safety saw long-term bond yields plumb new lows, the $A weaken, and $US and gold prices firm.  The $A has now hit my target level of US 68c, somewhat earlier than expected, while local 10-year bond yields are close to breaking below 1%!

Although the Fed cut rates by 0.25% as widely expected, Fed chair Powell’s declaration that this “was not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts” disappointed the market, although he did add “I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that”.  That’s consistent with my view that the Fed would likely cut rates twice this year but, barring a US recession, the four rates cuts seemingly expected over the next year always seemed unlikely.

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