{"id":7540,"date":"2026-03-31T00:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7540"},"modified":"2026-03-31T00:10:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T00:10:52","slug":"fnarena-weekly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/","title":{"rendered":"FNArena Weekly"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/td>Rudi’s Weekly Insights Monday, 30 March 2026 (This email was sent to paying subscribers on Monday, 30 March 2026)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor Dont Mistake Orderly for Safety Share markets are down a lot in March, but not as much as they could have been considering how the situation has deteriorated in the Middle East.

Even if all antagonists involved agree to a cease-fire soon –and that’s a big if at this stage– the damage done to supply, infrastructure, global growth and inflation might already be too large to prevent more de-rating of equities becoming necessary over the months ahead.

Markets are in a sustained downtrend, yes, and there has been little joy for your average investor since late February, but all in all there’s still an abundance of hope to keep the process orderly, gradual and controlled.

The key risk remains that hope will be replaced with despair as the outlook for the year ahead is increasingly being re-written through more disruption, lower growth, and higher inflation.

The longer the current bottlenecks remain unresolved, the more likely the world is steering towards the worst of all combinations for equities; stagflation, i.e. negative economic growth (recession) and persistently high inflation.

My personal worry is that when the general mindset in risk assets pivots to such an outcome, markets can turn violent very quickly, and spiral to much lower levels.

Two major things we should all try to avoid:

1. Draw confidence from the relatively orderly drawdown thus far
2. Assume things cannot get (much) worse

Regarding that second point, most analysis into potential future damage focuses on how high the price of oil needs to jump to inflict serious damage on economies, but what if the price stays elevated for longer without peaks of US$150 or US$200\/bbl?

Equity indices entered this troubled period at historically elevated valuations, while substantial parts of households in Australia, the US, and elsewhere were already struggling with the cost-of-living and, in Australia, rising interest rates on top.

One additional concern from the war is that supply shortages for fertiliser feed into price rises for food –the staple among staple purchases for just about every household anywhere– on top of higher transport costs that also need to be accounted for, one way or another.

The current stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz still offers plenty of room for positive surprises and alternative scenarios, but with every additional day of no resolution, such negative consequences become more feasible and likely.

Savvy, experienced investors understand making choices is not about knowing what happens next. It’s not even about specific strategies or one’s level for risk appetite.

Successful investing is about managing risk.

Right now, the one key question every investor should be asking is: am I prepared for worse outcomes and a lot more pain? If not, it’s still not too late to make amendments.

In recent writings, I suggested using this crisis to build a better quality portfolio, with the aim of upgrading one’s investment performance over the longer term. That suggestion still stands. But we should at the same time not remain blind to the fact the current crisis may only have just begun, and thus a lot more negative news might still be forthcoming.

Last week, I was invited to join the investment committee at AuzbizTV. Their theoretical portfolio had 6% in cash. My first question was: does anyone think that’s enough cash, given circumstances?

In similar fashion, the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio<\/strong> is currently sitting 21% in cash, in addition to 6% exposure to gold (ETF).

I am questioning almost on a daily basis whether this is a sufficient buffer against further mayhem, without sacrificing too much of the upside potential in case of positive surprise. Today’s Winners & Losers Cash is not the only option in the current environment, of course. The disruptions stemming from the war in Iran are creating both winners and losers, albeit more of the latter.

Plus it’s essential to keep in mind investors’ perception of winners and losers will change as this process plays out over a longer-term framework.

Right now, the number one logical beneficiaries are energy producers such as Woodside Energy ((WDS)), Santos ((STO)) and Karoon Energy ((KAR)), but also Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)).

These companies are currently enjoying steady upgrades to earnings and dividend forecasts, whereas the market at large will soon start experiencing downgrades. These share prices are equally rapidly closing the gap with consensus targets, if there still is a gap to bridge, and might start trading on premium valuations, depending on the duration of current boom conditions (for them).

There are equally beneficiaries through thermal coal, aluminium, uranium and lithium and recent sector strategy updates from analysts at UBS and Macquarie reflect this, as well as upgrades in ratings and forecasts from analysts generally.

Opinions vary when it comes to copper, gold, and other commodities. This is also because of the markets’ rotation in specific focus.

Take gold, for example. History shows it’s not unusual for gold to retreat when the USD and US Treasuries are more attractive, as gold often trades in opposition to those markets. Gold tends to suffer when market participants are forced to liquidate positions. More recently, some central banks have been selling part of their holdings.

In addition, both gold and silver experienced a tremendous rally throughout 2025 and that always means a large portion of ‘hot’ money has joined the party. Those holders tend not to stick around when the uptrend stalls.

But gold is a true chameleon and when the market’s focus switches again to slowing economic momentum and central banks injecting more liquidity, its safe haven status should be re-enforced yet again, not to mention the large(r) US budget deficits that will yet again result from this war.

The proposition for copper is exactly the opposite. Once the market’s focus pivots to slumping global economic growth, the price of copper is likely to have its own out-of-favour period, similar to what REITs and technology stocks are experiencing today.

Similar as with gold, analysts tend to retain their positive view on a longer-term time frame. Playing Offence Through Defence One obvious observation from the war in Iran is that open warfare has changed and America has by large missed the on-the-ground transformation that has taken place since Russia invaded Ukraine.

In time the Americans will catch up, of course, and this means even more demand for counter-drone equipment and technologies.

This is also Bell Potter<\/strong>‘s thesis behind ongoing attraction to ASX-listed DroneShield ((DRO)) and Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)), as well as Elsight Ltd ((ELS)) and Codan ((CDA)).

Bell Potter has equally lined up AML3D ((AL3)), Titomic ((TTT)), 6K Additive ((6KA)) and IperionX ((IPX)) as future beneficiaries from increased defence spending around the world, though these are all micro caps, which effectively means more volatility and more risk for substantial weakness when risk appetite retreats, irrespectively of what might happen longer term.

Within this context, UBS strategists <\/strong>note before the war broke out, market participants had positioned for stronger growth and mild inflation, which meant a preference for cyclicals instead of technology, small caps over large caps, and for equities outside the US.

These positions have largely remained in place, also indicating there’s still a lot of hope any damage done from an ill-prepared and ill-conceived attack on Iran will remain benign and temporary. If\/when this belief changes, markets can become wildly volatile as money moves from one end to another.

For what it’s worth, those UBS strategists believe the S&P500 will bottom quickly in case of a rapid resolution, with the index then seen rising to 7150 by year-end.

Assuming disruption persists until late April (another month ahead) they see the S&P500 potentially falling to 6000. Add another month and the likely target becomes 5350.

On Friday, the S&P500 closed at 6368.85 which then translates into a gain of more than 12% (woohoo!), or additional losses of -5.80% and -16% respectively.

History suggests the local market probably won’t match the US performance to the upside, while it usually weakens even more under truly miserable conditions.

Plus, of course, many individual stocks will outperform on the upside, and suffer much larger losses to the downside.

Be careful. It’s getting very dangerous out there. Make sure you still sleep at night. See also: https:\/\/fnarena.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/18\/rudis-view-oil-inflation-growth-stagflation\/<\/a> FNArena Subscription<\/u><\/strong> A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below. (This story was written on Monday, 30th March 2026. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).<\/strong> (Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena’s see disclaimer on the website.<\/strong>

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Total Recommendations (past week) Source: FNArena<\/td>Recommendation Changes (past week) Source: FNArena<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
 <\/td><\/tr>
Buy\/Hold\/Sell Breakdown Source: FNArena<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Want to subscribe to FNArena?<\/strong> For further information, please visit our website: www.fnarena.com<\/strong><\/a><\/td><\/tr>
What is the Weekly Email?<\/strong> You are receiving this email because you have either trialed or subscribed to the FNArena Australian Broker Call service.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody>
<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rudi’s Weekly Insights Monday, 30 March 2026 (This email was sent to paying subscribers on Monday, 30 March 2026) By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor Dont Mistake Orderly for Safety Share markets are down a lot in March, but not as much as they could have been considering how the situation has deteriorated in the Middle East. Even if all antagonists involved agree to a cease-fire soon –and that’s a big if at this stage– the damage done to supply, infrastructure, global growth and inflation might already be too large to prevent more de-rating of equities becoming necessary over the months ahead. Markets are in a sustained downtrend, yes, and there has been little joy for your average investor since late February, but all in all there’s still an abundance of hope to keep the process orderly, gradual and controlled. The key risk remains that hope will be replaced with despair as the outlook for the year ahead is increasingly being re-written through more disruption, lower growth, and higher inflation. The longer the current bottlenecks remain unresolved, the more likely the world is steering towards the worst of all combinations for equities; stagflation, i.e. negative economic growth (recession) and persistently high inflation. My personal worry is that when the general mindset in risk assets pivots to such an outcome, markets can turn violent very quickly, and spiral to much lower levels. Two major things we should all try to avoid: 1. Draw confidence from the relatively orderly drawdown thus far2. Assume things cannot get (much) worse Regarding that second point, most analysis into potential future damage focuses on how high the price of oil needs to jump to inflict serious damage on economies, but what if the price stays elevated for longer without peaks of US$150 or US$200\/bbl? Equity indices entered this troubled period at historically elevated valuations, while substantial parts of households in Australia, the US, and elsewhere were already struggling with the cost-of-living and, in Australia, rising interest rates on top. One additional concern from the war is that supply shortages for fertiliser feed into price rises for food –the staple among staple purchases for just about every household anywhere– on top of higher transport costs that also need to be accounted for, one way or another. The current stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz still offers plenty of room for positive surprises and alternative scenarios, but with every additional day of no resolution, such negative consequences become more feasible and likely. Savvy, experienced investors understand making choices is not about knowing what happens next. It’s not even about specific strategies or one’s level for risk appetite. Successful investing is about managing risk. Right now, the one key question every investor should be asking is: am I prepared for worse outcomes and a lot more pain? If not, it’s still not too late to make amendments. In recent writings, I suggested using this crisis to build a better quality portfolio, with the aim of upgrading one’s investment performance over the longer term. That suggestion still stands. But we should at the same time not remain blind to the fact the current crisis may only have just begun, and thus a lot more negative news might still be forthcoming. Last week, I was invited to join the investment committee at AuzbizTV. Their theoretical portfolio had 6% in cash. My first question was: does anyone think that’s enough cash, given circumstances? In similar fashion, the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio is currently sitting 21% in cash, in addition to 6% exposure to gold (ETF). I am questioning almost on a daily basis whether this is a sufficient buffer against further mayhem, without sacrificing too much of the upside potential in case of positive surprise. Today’s Winners & Losers Cash is not the only option in the current environment, of course. The disruptions stemming from the war in Iran are creating both winners and losers, albeit more of the latter. Plus it’s essential to keep in mind investors’ perception of winners and losers will change as this process plays out over a longer-term framework. Right now, the number one logical beneficiaries are energy producers such as Woodside Energy ((WDS)), Santos ((STO)) and Karoon Energy ((KAR)), but also Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)). These companies are currently enjoying steady upgrades to earnings and dividend forecasts, whereas the market at large will soon start experiencing downgrades. These share prices are equally rapidly closing the gap with consensus targets, if there still is a gap to bridge, and might start trading on premium valuations, depending on the duration of current boom conditions (for them). There are equally beneficiaries through thermal coal, aluminium, uranium and lithium and recent sector strategy updates from analysts at UBS and Macquarie reflect this, as well as upgrades in ratings and forecasts from analysts generally. Opinions vary when it comes to copper, gold, and other commodities. This is also because of the markets’ rotation in specific focus. Take gold, for example. History shows it’s not unusual for gold to retreat when the USD and US Treasuries are more attractive, as gold often trades in opposition to those markets. Gold tends to suffer when market participants are forced to liquidate positions. More recently, some central banks have been selling part of their holdings. In addition, both gold and silver experienced a tremendous rally throughout 2025 and that always means a large portion of ‘hot’ money has joined the party. Those holders tend not to stick around when the uptrend stalls. But gold is a true chameleon and when the market’s focus switches again to slowing economic momentum and central banks injecting more liquidity, its safe haven status should be re-enforced yet again, not to mention the large(r) US budget deficits that will yet again result from this war. The proposition for copper is exactly the opposite. Once the market’s focus pivots to slumping global economic growth, the price of copper is likely to have its own out-of-favour period, similar to what REITs […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fnarena-weekly","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nFNArena Weekly - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FNArena Weekly - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rudi’s Weekly Insights Monday, 30 March 2026 (This email was sent to paying subscribers on Monday, 30 March 2026) By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor Dont Mistake Orderly for Safety Share markets are down a lot in March, but not as much as they could have been considering how the situation has deteriorated in the Middle East. Even if all antagonists involved agree to a cease-fire soon –and that’s a big if at this stage– the damage done to supply, infrastructure, global growth and inflation might already be too large to prevent more de-rating of equities becoming necessary over the months ahead. Markets are in a sustained downtrend, yes, and there has been little joy for your average investor since late February, but all in all there’s still an abundance of hope to keep the process orderly, gradual and controlled. The key risk remains that hope will be replaced with despair as the outlook for the year ahead is increasingly being re-written through more disruption, lower growth, and higher inflation. The longer the current bottlenecks remain unresolved, the more likely the world is steering towards the worst of all combinations for equities; stagflation, i.e. negative economic growth (recession) and persistently high inflation. My personal worry is that when the general mindset in risk assets pivots to such an outcome, markets can turn violent very quickly, and spiral to much lower levels. Two major things we should all try to avoid: 1. Draw confidence from the relatively orderly drawdown thus far2. Assume things cannot get (much) worse Regarding that second point, most analysis into potential future damage focuses on how high the price of oil needs to jump to inflict serious damage on economies, but what if the price stays elevated for longer without peaks of US$150 or US$200\/bbl? Equity indices entered this troubled period at historically elevated valuations, while substantial parts of households in Australia, the US, and elsewhere were already struggling with the cost-of-living and, in Australia, rising interest rates on top. One additional concern from the war is that supply shortages for fertiliser feed into price rises for food –the staple among staple purchases for just about every household anywhere– on top of higher transport costs that also need to be accounted for, one way or another. The current stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz still offers plenty of room for positive surprises and alternative scenarios, but with every additional day of no resolution, such negative consequences become more feasible and likely. Savvy, experienced investors understand making choices is not about knowing what happens next. It’s not even about specific strategies or one’s level for risk appetite. Successful investing is about managing risk. Right now, the one key question every investor should be asking is: am I prepared for worse outcomes and a lot more pain? If not, it’s still not too late to make amendments. In recent writings, I suggested using this crisis to build a better quality portfolio, with the aim of upgrading one’s investment performance over the longer term. That suggestion still stands. But we should at the same time not remain blind to the fact the current crisis may only have just begun, and thus a lot more negative news might still be forthcoming. Last week, I was invited to join the investment committee at AuzbizTV. Their theoretical portfolio had 6% in cash. My first question was: does anyone think that’s enough cash, given circumstances? In similar fashion, the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio is currently sitting 21% in cash, in addition to 6% exposure to gold (ETF). I am questioning almost on a daily basis whether this is a sufficient buffer against further mayhem, without sacrificing too much of the upside potential in case of positive surprise. Today’s Winners & Losers Cash is not the only option in the current environment, of course. The disruptions stemming from the war in Iran are creating both winners and losers, albeit more of the latter. Plus it’s essential to keep in mind investors’ perception of winners and losers will change as this process plays out over a longer-term framework. Right now, the number one logical beneficiaries are energy producers such as Woodside Energy ((WDS)), Santos ((STO)) and Karoon Energy ((KAR)), but also Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)). These companies are currently enjoying steady upgrades to earnings and dividend forecasts, whereas the market at large will soon start experiencing downgrades. These share prices are equally rapidly closing the gap with consensus targets, if there still is a gap to bridge, and might start trading on premium valuations, depending on the duration of current boom conditions (for them). There are equally beneficiaries through thermal coal, aluminium, uranium and lithium and recent sector strategy updates from analysts at UBS and Macquarie reflect this, as well as upgrades in ratings and forecasts from analysts generally. Opinions vary when it comes to copper, gold, and other commodities. This is also because of the markets’ rotation in specific focus. Take gold, for example. History shows it’s not unusual for gold to retreat when the USD and US Treasuries are more attractive, as gold often trades in opposition to those markets. Gold tends to suffer when market participants are forced to liquidate positions. More recently, some central banks have been selling part of their holdings. In addition, both gold and silver experienced a tremendous rally throughout 2025 and that always means a large portion of ‘hot’ money has joined the party. Those holders tend not to stick around when the uptrend stalls. But gold is a true chameleon and when the market’s focus switches again to slowing economic momentum and central banks injecting more liquidity, its safe haven status should be re-enforced yet again, not to mention the large(r) US budget deficits that will yet again result from this war. The proposition for copper is exactly the opposite. Once the market’s focus pivots to slumping global economic growth, the price of copper is likely to have its own out-of-favour period, similar to what REITs […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-31T00:10:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-31T00:10:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mike Avey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mike Avey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/31\\\/fnarena-weekly\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/31\\\/fnarena-weekly\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mike Avey\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c\"},\"headline\":\"FNArena Weekly\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-31T00:10:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-31T00:10:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/31\\\/fnarena-weekly\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1623,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"FNArena Weekly\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/31\\\/fnarena-weekly\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/31\\\/fnarena-weekly\\\/\",\"name\":\"FNArena Weekly - 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Abingdon Wealth","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"FNArena Weekly - Abingdon Wealth","og_description":"Rudi’s Weekly Insights Monday, 30 March 2026 (This email was sent to paying subscribers on Monday, 30 March 2026) By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor Dont Mistake Orderly for Safety Share markets are down a lot in March, but not as much as they could have been considering how the situation has deteriorated in the Middle East. Even if all antagonists involved agree to a cease-fire soon –and that’s a big if at this stage– the damage done to supply, infrastructure, global growth and inflation might already be too large to prevent more de-rating of equities becoming necessary over the months ahead. Markets are in a sustained downtrend, yes, and there has been little joy for your average investor since late February, but all in all there’s still an abundance of hope to keep the process orderly, gradual and controlled. The key risk remains that hope will be replaced with despair as the outlook for the year ahead is increasingly being re-written through more disruption, lower growth, and higher inflation. The longer the current bottlenecks remain unresolved, the more likely the world is steering towards the worst of all combinations for equities; stagflation, i.e. negative economic growth (recession) and persistently high inflation. My personal worry is that when the general mindset in risk assets pivots to such an outcome, markets can turn violent very quickly, and spiral to much lower levels. Two major things we should all try to avoid: 1. Draw confidence from the relatively orderly drawdown thus far2. Assume things cannot get (much) worse Regarding that second point, most analysis into potential future damage focuses on how high the price of oil needs to jump to inflict serious damage on economies, but what if the price stays elevated for longer without peaks of US$150 or US$200\/bbl? Equity indices entered this troubled period at historically elevated valuations, while substantial parts of households in Australia, the US, and elsewhere were already struggling with the cost-of-living and, in Australia, rising interest rates on top. One additional concern from the war is that supply shortages for fertiliser feed into price rises for food –the staple among staple purchases for just about every household anywhere– on top of higher transport costs that also need to be accounted for, one way or another. The current stalemate around the Strait of Hormuz still offers plenty of room for positive surprises and alternative scenarios, but with every additional day of no resolution, such negative consequences become more feasible and likely. Savvy, experienced investors understand making choices is not about knowing what happens next. It’s not even about specific strategies or one’s level for risk appetite. Successful investing is about managing risk. Right now, the one key question every investor should be asking is: am I prepared for worse outcomes and a lot more pain? If not, it’s still not too late to make amendments. In recent writings, I suggested using this crisis to build a better quality portfolio, with the aim of upgrading one’s investment performance over the longer term. That suggestion still stands. But we should at the same time not remain blind to the fact the current crisis may only have just begun, and thus a lot more negative news might still be forthcoming. Last week, I was invited to join the investment committee at AuzbizTV. Their theoretical portfolio had 6% in cash. My first question was: does anyone think that’s enough cash, given circumstances? In similar fashion, the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio is currently sitting 21% in cash, in addition to 6% exposure to gold (ETF). I am questioning almost on a daily basis whether this is a sufficient buffer against further mayhem, without sacrificing too much of the upside potential in case of positive surprise. Today’s Winners & Losers Cash is not the only option in the current environment, of course. The disruptions stemming from the war in Iran are creating both winners and losers, albeit more of the latter. Plus it’s essential to keep in mind investors’ perception of winners and losers will change as this process plays out over a longer-term framework. Right now, the number one logical beneficiaries are energy producers such as Woodside Energy ((WDS)), Santos ((STO)) and Karoon Energy ((KAR)), but also Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)). These companies are currently enjoying steady upgrades to earnings and dividend forecasts, whereas the market at large will soon start experiencing downgrades. These share prices are equally rapidly closing the gap with consensus targets, if there still is a gap to bridge, and might start trading on premium valuations, depending on the duration of current boom conditions (for them). There are equally beneficiaries through thermal coal, aluminium, uranium and lithium and recent sector strategy updates from analysts at UBS and Macquarie reflect this, as well as upgrades in ratings and forecasts from analysts generally. Opinions vary when it comes to copper, gold, and other commodities. This is also because of the markets’ rotation in specific focus. Take gold, for example. History shows it’s not unusual for gold to retreat when the USD and US Treasuries are more attractive, as gold often trades in opposition to those markets. Gold tends to suffer when market participants are forced to liquidate positions. More recently, some central banks have been selling part of their holdings. In addition, both gold and silver experienced a tremendous rally throughout 2025 and that always means a large portion of ‘hot’ money has joined the party. Those holders tend not to stick around when the uptrend stalls. But gold is a true chameleon and when the market’s focus switches again to slowing economic momentum and central banks injecting more liquidity, its safe haven status should be re-enforced yet again, not to mention the large(r) US budget deficits that will yet again result from this war. The proposition for copper is exactly the opposite. Once the market’s focus pivots to slumping global economic growth, the price of copper is likely to have its own out-of-favour period, similar to what REITs […]","og_url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/","og_site_name":"Abingdon Wealth","article_published_time":"2026-03-31T00:10:50+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-03-31T00:10:52+00:00","author":"Mike Avey","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mike Avey","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/"},"author":{"name":"Mike Avey","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c"},"headline":"FNArena Weekly","datePublished":"2026-03-31T00:10:50+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-31T00:10:52+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/"},"wordCount":1623,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#organization"},"articleSection":["FNArena Weekly"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/","name":"FNArena Weekly - Abingdon Wealth","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-03-31T00:10:50+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-31T00:10:52+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2026\/03\/31\/fnarena-weekly\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"FNArena Weekly"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#website","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/","name":"Abingdon Wealth","description":"Financial Advisor Brisbane | Abingdon Wealth","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#organization","name":"Abingdon Wealth","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/LogoTest_1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/LogoTest_1.png","width":272,"height":84,"caption":"Abingdon Wealth"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c","name":"Mike Avey","sameAs":["https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au"],"url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/author\/abma1\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7540"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7542,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7540\/revisions\/7542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}