{"id":7488,"date":"2025-12-14T19:22:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-14T19:22:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7488"},"modified":"2025-12-14T19:22:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T19:22:05","slug":"fnarenas-weekly-insights-saturday-13-december-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/14\/fnarenas-weekly-insights-saturday-13-december-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"FNArena’s Weekly Insights – Saturday, 13 December 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Week Ahead<\/h1>\r\n

The week that was in Australian Finance:<\/h2>\r\n

-The global outlook on interest rates globally continued to diverge this week with the FOMC cutting the overnight rate by -25bps and announcing the start of Reserve Management Purchases, which CrossBorder Capital\u2019s Michael Howell refers to as\u00a0\u2018Not QE, QE\u2019<\/em>. The Fed is starting purchases on Dec 12 at a monthly pace of US$40bn of mostly Treasury bills.<\/p>\r\n

-While the market had been poised for a hawkish cut, the outcome was rather more dovish and boosted the gold price, US markets and general sentiment.<\/p>\r\n

-In contrast, the RBA\u2019s December decision to retain the cash rate on Tuesday turned into a more hawkish affair at the presser, with brokers and banks penning RBA rate hikes, possibly as early as February 3rd, which has quickly become a live meeting.<\/p>\r\n

-The outlook was muddied again on Thursday when the Australian labour force report showed\u00a0-21k jobs had been shed in November, missing the expected 20k gain.<\/p>\r\n

-IG noted \u201cdeclining participation and job losses are hardly signs of a healthy labour market, and this was reflected in the rates space with yields falling across the complex, leaving the rates market pricing in just 45bp of rate hikes between now and the end of 2026, down from 56bp on Wednesday afternoon.\u201d<\/p>\r\n

-A data dependent RBA will be laser focused, as will traders and the markets, on\u00a0key upcoming data; labour market (22 Jan), inflation (Nov CPI on 7 Jan and Q4 on 28 Jan) as well as the various consumer and housing indicators in January.\u00a0Key in its deliberations is how broad based and persistent the recent pick-up in inflation is.<\/p>\r\n

-It has been a big week for brokers updating the outlook for resource stocks as the copper and silver prices hit record highs as short squeezes intensified for the shiny metal. The gold price is trending to US$4300oz and could retest the record high of US$4381oz, with rumbling from NATO preparing for war with Russia at some stage\u00a0no doubt stoking\u00a0for fear \u2018gold\u2019 trade\u2019<\/p>\r\n

-The ASX200 had a mildly positive experience this\u00a0week with ongoing divergence between sectors. Materials continued to be the standout, rallying another 4.26%, bringing the year gain to over 22%. Info Tech continued to experience the brunt of selling with ongoing rotation out of the sector, down -4.26% for the week and almost -20% for the last 12 months.<\/p>\r\n

-Notably, the domestic tech sector performance stands in contrast to the US Nasdaq and may reflect an ongoing de-rating of valuation on higher interest rate expectations, while the resources sector\u2019s outlook remains more appealing.<\/p>\r\n

-The only other sectors to lift were real estate and financials, with the balance all fading over the week under selling pressure.<\/p>\r\n

-Next week, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index is due out on Tuesday, let\u2019s see if the outlook for higher interest rates has started to impact yet.<\/p>\r\n

-In central bank world, the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision on Friday may create further volatility across currency and global bond markets.<\/p>\r\n

FNArena wishes everyone a lovely, safe, and happy weekend.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
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In today’s Weekly Insights:<\/p>\n

-A warning from Longview Economics
\n-Some sage advice from\u00a0Franklin Equity Group
\n-Taking Stock Ahead Of August<\/p>\n

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor<\/p>\n

A warning from Chris Watling, Global Economist & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics:<\/p>\n

“Signs of froth continue to build in global financial markets (especially in the US).<\/p>\n

“As has been widely reported, this has been one of the fastest recoveries by the US stock market from a major drawdown. From the April 8th closing lows, it took 54 trading days to recover the 19% loss during the pullback (i.e. based on closing prices). By way of comparison, post the March 2020 COVID sell-off it took 107 trading days from the March 23rd\u00a0lows to reclaim the highs (from Feb 2020).<\/p>\n

“As that froth has emerged, our SELL-off indicator has continued to build to higher levels. As of yesterdays close it had reached +36 (an unusually high level for this model). At +20, it warns of a high likelihood of a pullback (and signals that global markets are becoming overly exuberant).”<\/p>\n

Some sage advice from Jonathan Curtis, Chief Investment Officer Portfolio Manager Franklin Equity Group:<\/p>\n

“The market sees AI as a tech story. Smart investors see it as an everything story.”<\/p>\n

“In 1995, if you bought the PC leaders, you did well as an investor. But if you bought the smartest companies that built competitive advantage by digitizing their business early using the PC? You probably got rich.<\/p>\n

“We believe today’s AI moment is bigger. It’s faster. And it’s hiding in plain sight.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fnarena-weekly","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nFNArena's Weekly Insights - Saturday, 13 December 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/14\/fnarenas-weekly-insights-saturday-13-december-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FNArena's Weekly Insights - Saturday, 13 December 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In today's Weekly Insights: -A warning from Longview Economics -Some sage advice from\u00a0Franklin Equity Group -Taking Stock Ahead Of August By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor A warning from Chris Watling, Global Economist & Chief Market Strategist, Longview Economics: "Signs of froth continue to build in global financial markets (especially in the US). "As has been widely reported, this has been one of the fastest recoveries by the US stock market from a major drawdown. From the April 8th closing lows, it took 54 trading days to recover the 19% loss during the pullback (i.e. based on closing prices). By way of comparison, post the March 2020 COVID sell-off it took 107 trading days from the March 23rd\u00a0lows to reclaim the highs (from Feb 2020). "As that froth has emerged, our SELL-off indicator has continued to build to higher levels. As of yesterdays close it had reached +36 (an unusually high level for this model). At +20, it warns of a high likelihood of a pullback (and signals that global markets are becoming overly exuberant)." Some sage advice from Jonathan Curtis, Chief Investment Officer Portfolio Manager Franklin Equity Group: "The market sees AI as a tech story. Smart investors see it as an everything story." "In 1995, if you bought the PC leaders, you did well as an investor. But if you bought the smartest companies that built competitive advantage by digitizing their business early using the PC? You probably got rich. "We believe today's AI moment is bigger. It's faster. 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