{"id":7472,"date":"2025-12-03T18:52:33","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T18:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7472"},"modified":"2025-12-03T18:56:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T18:56:47","slug":"bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bassanese Bites: Inflation tests – 24 November 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global stocks slumped last week, reflecting lingering AI bubble concerns and pessimism around the prospect of another US rate cut next month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n

Global week in review: Nvidia nerves<\/h2>\n

The major global highlight last week was the surprise intra-day decline in US equities following the hotly anticipated release of Nvidia\u2019s earnings result. Although Nvidia again beat earnings expectations and talked up a bright future, US stocks ended the following day down 0.9% despite a 2% pop on the open.<\/p>\n

As the old saying goes, retail investors tend to open the market while the professionals close it. So the intra-day slump seemed a vote of no confidence (or at least profit taking) among those who are supposed to know best.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The other key highlight last week was the overdue release of the September US payrolls report, which was mixed, with a better than expected employment gain of 119k yet a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Markets were unsure what this meant with regard for Fed policy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Last but not least, Wall Street ended Friday more positively, following comments from New York Fed President John Williams \u2013 a voting Fed member \u2013 suggesting it was still possible that rates could be cut next month. Equities lifted and the market pushed up the probability of a rate cut next month, from around 40% to 70%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Global week ahead: US inflation<\/h2>\n

With the US government back in business, the drumbeat of US economic data will start to pick up. This week we\u2019ll get an important update on the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation measure: the private consumption expenditure deflator (PCED) on Thursday (US time).<\/p>\n

The good news is that \u2013 following a surprisingly benign CPI result \u2013 markets expect an equally reassuring result, with core prices (i.e. excluding food and energy) forecast to increase by only 0.2%, which would keep the annual rate steady at 2.9%. While US inflation remains higher than the Fed\u2019s 2% target, it could be a lot worse, with the flow through of tariff effects into prices still fairly muted. Corporate America, at this stage, is still willing to \u2018eat\u2019 the tax rather than pass it onto customers.<\/p>\n

Also due out tomorrow are retail sales, producer prices and consumer confidence. On Thursday, we get the Fed\u2019s Beige Book report on economic conditions. All will be scrutinised for clues on the health of the US economy.<\/p>\n

Global equity trends<\/h2>\n

It was a sea of red last week. As might be expected, tech and growth related exposures fared worst, with the NASDAQ-100 down 3.0%. Japanese stocks also corrected further after strongly outperforming in recent months.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

While shifts could be underway, it\u2019s still a bit premature to suggest the outperforming bias of US\/growth\/technology is shifting in favour of non-US and value. To my mind, such a shift remains directional \u2013 if equities sink further, the former will be hit hardest, although if the current market pullback is short-lived (my working assumption), the former will likely bounce back the strongest.<\/p>\n

That said, the good relative performance of Japan and emerging markets, even before the recent market correction, suggests these could be new themes with legs and a useful source of diversification beyond US tech.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Australian week in review: RBA holds as expected<\/h2>\n

Local stocks also sunk last week in line with global markets, although are yet to reflect Wall Street\u2019s bounce on Friday. There was only limited local news, with a fairly benign\u00a0Q3 wage price index<\/a>\u00a0gain of 0.8%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Apart from wages, the other local highlight was comment from Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, suggesting the labour market remains a little \u201ctight\u201d. It was further cold water on the prospect of a rate cut anytime soon.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Australian week ahead: All new monthly CPI!<\/h2>\n

The major local highlight this week will be publication of the first fully detailed monthly CPI report on Wednesday. Unlike monthly CPI reports to date, this publication promises more complete monthly coverage of both goods and service prices and so, in theory, should provide a higher signal to noise ratio than its predecessor.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Of critical importance in coming months will be the annualised run rate of monthly CPI increases. For the RBA to cut rates next year, we\u2019ll need to see a sub-3% pace from the effective 4% annualised pace evident in Q3. That would imply monthly increases in the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation of 0.2%, rather than 0.3%. In fact, if annualised inflation does\u00a0not\u00a0drop to below 3%, the prospect of rate hikes next year would start to become a real prospect.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Also due out this week is the start of key building blocks for the Q3 GDP report, beginning with construction work done on Wednesday and the private capital expenditure survey on Thursday. Both are likely to show positive, though fairly subdued, growth.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Australian equity trends<\/h2>\n

Dampened rate cut hopes have generally hurt high-beta local equity themes of late such as technology and small caps. Last week technology suffered a further 4.1% loss, while materials were down 4.0%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the large cap space, the outperformance trend of resources over financials remains in place.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Have a great week!<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Click here to read my full post<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global week in review<\/p>\n

Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0<\/p>\n

Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation!<\/p>\n

While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is this good news?<\/p>\n

From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bassanese-bites","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nBassanese Bites: Inflation tests - 24 November 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bassanese Bites: Inflation tests - 24 November 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global week in review Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0 Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0 Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation! While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0 Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0 Is this good news? 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Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation! While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0 Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0 Is this good news? From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0 That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0 There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.","og_url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/","og_site_name":"Abingdon Wealth","article_published_time":"2025-12-03T18:52:33+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-12-03T18:56:47+00:00","author":"Mike Avey","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mike Avey","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/"},"author":{"name":"Mike Avey","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c"},"headline":"Bassanese Bites: Inflation tests – 24 November 2025","datePublished":"2025-12-03T18:52:33+00:00","dateModified":"2025-12-03T18:56:47+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/"},"wordCount":855,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.betashares.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/chart1-3.webp","keywords":["format"],"articleSection":["Bassanese Bites"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/12\/03\/bassanese-bites-inflation-tests-24-november-2025\/","name":"Bassanese Bites: Inflation tests - 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