{"id":7420,"date":"2025-09-27T01:05:35","date_gmt":"2025-09-27T01:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7420"},"modified":"2025-09-27T01:05:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T01:05:35","slug":"fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/27\/fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"FNArena&#8217;s Special News Alert &#8211; 25 September 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\"><header class=\"entry-header\">\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In today&#8217;s edition:<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>-Inflation A Problem, Yet Again<br \/>-Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed<br \/>-Shaw&#8217;s Favourite Copper Exposures<br \/>-Golden favourites<br \/>-Citi&#8217;s healthcare favourites<br \/>-Gaming stocks; details matter<br \/>-Interviewed By Peter Switzer<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor<\/p>\r\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><u><strong>Inflation A Problem, Yet Again<\/strong><\/u><\/h2>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The big news of the week was, of course, not that unhinged speech in front of global leaders at the United Nations general assembly or the return of late nigh host Jimmy Kimmel on American television, but the nasty inflation surprise domestically.<br \/><br \/>It pretty much cemented ongoing under-performance for the local share market vis a vis offshore peers as economists and bond traders removed the prospect of RBA rate cuts for the foreseeable future.<br \/><br \/>UBS still thinks the November meeting might see another -25bp cut, but the likes of National Australia Bank have now postponed that move to May next year. Citi is toying with the idea there may not follow any more rate cuts at all.<br \/><br \/>Without doubt, the renewed public debate puts the recovery and valuations for retailers and companies linked to consumer spending generally under the microscope.<br \/><br \/>What if the RBA will now sit on its hands for months on end? What will the recovery in consumer sentiment\/spending and in property prices and construction look like?<br \/><br \/>The question is not trivial. As pointed out previously, both consumer-related companies and those leveraged to domestic building activity had been among the eye-catching winners in August and many an analyst\u00a0report with positive projections in August mentioned the prospect for further RBA rate cuts to underpin those projections.<br \/><br \/>But what now?<br \/><br \/><strong>Portfolio strategists at Wilsons<\/strong>\u00a0weighed in on the debate this week by highlighting Wesfarmers ((WES)) and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) as two companies whose valuation seems bloated in the face of a recovery that might well be considered with a few extra question marks for the time being.<br \/><br \/>For this specific reason, Wilsons&#8217; Focus Portfolio has no exposure to either of the two. But there are still opportunities in the sector, the strategists assure.<br \/><br \/>Wilsons&#8217; favourites are Collins Foods ((CKF)), Autosports Group ((ASG)), and Universal Store ((UNI)). Only Collins Foods is currently included in the portfolio.<br \/><br \/>Prior to this week&#8217;s CPI disappointment, analysts at\u00a0<strong>Jarden\u00a0<\/strong>had built a case centred around their thesis that the outlook for consumer spending in Austalia has never looked as favourable since covid.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That assessment involved the lagging impact from rate cuts already delivered.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Stated Jarden:\u00a0<em>&#8220;We believe the pressure is now on retailers to deliver the right product, at the right time, and at the right price, while engaging customers effectively&#8221;.<\/em><br \/><br \/>If Jarden&#8217;s assessment proves correct, the upcoming AGM season should deliver confirmation through trading updates.<br \/><br \/>ASX favourites include Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) for defensive growth, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) for home goods, and Flight Centre ((FLT))<em>\u00a0&#8220;the laggard that could materially outperform&#8221;<\/em>.<br \/><br \/>Jarden is least keen on Endeavour Group ((EDV)), Domino&#8217;s Pizza ((DMP)), Kogan ((KGN)), and Guzman Y Gomez ((GYG)).<\/p>\r\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><u><strong>Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed<\/strong><\/u><\/h2>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Investors worried about valuations, investor exuberance or what might possibly be decided next at the White House should take a leaf from history, analysis by the\u00a0<strong>Franklin Templeton Institute<\/strong>\u00a0suggested this week.<br \/><br \/>That analysis suggests whenever the Federal Reserve resumes cutting interest rates, those who stay invested will be rewarded, even though shorter-term volatility should be expected.<br \/><br \/>The one statement from the report that summarises it nicely:\u00a0<em>Equities thrive on easing financial conditions and have historically moved in line with them.<\/em><br \/><br \/>Apart from Don&#8217;t fight the Fed, the report also adds buy the dip remains one key lesson for investors.<\/p>\r\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"maxwidth img-responsive\" src=\"https:\/\/fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/files\/2025\/09\/US%20Equities%20upon%20resuming%20Fed%20rate%20cuts%20-%20Franklin%20Templeton%20Institute.jpg\" alt=\"US Equities upon resuming Fed rate cuts - Franklin Templeton Institute\" \/><\/figure>\r\n<h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><br \/><br \/><u><strong>Shaw&#8217;s Favourite Copper Exposures<\/strong><\/u><\/h2>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The price of copper has almost literally taken the elevator higher over the past number of weeks and with production problems emerging at one of the world&#8217;s largest sources of supply (Indonesia&#8217;s Grasberg) there could be a whole lot more enthusiasm awaiting for mining companies offering exposure.<\/p>\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\" style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a style=\"font-size: revert;\" href=\"https:\/\/fnarena.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/25\/rudis-view-dont-fight-the-fed-inflation-gold-copper-more\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Click to read the Full Report<\/a><\/p>\r\n<\/header><\/header>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In today&#8217;s Weekly Insights:<\/p>\n<p>-Dicker Data; Megatrends Without Covid-Lockdowns<br \/>\n-Ask FNArena<\/p>\n<p>By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor<\/p>\n<p>This week marks the end of fiscal 2025 (Monday June 30th) and yet another year of double digit return for the local market (as measured by the ASX200).<\/p>\n<p>Below the surface, another regularly recurring phenomenon has equally come to its end; tax loss selling.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a real thing, every year around late-May until the final day of June, but precisely how and where the impact is felt is very much determined by general market trends and conditions.<\/p>\n<p>This year, the strong market performance has very much relied upon large cap Financials, with the banks in pole position, Growth stocks and the Technology sector, with miners (outside of gold), energy companies, staples and healthcare the notable laggards.<\/p>\n<p>Equally important: small cap stocks without positive momentum remain in the unloved basket.<\/p>\n<p>The share market can be as re-assuring and comforting as it can be frustrating when holding small cap laggards that keep on lagging.<\/p>\n<p>Guess which stocks investors have been selling out from to reduce their tax liability? My guess is small cap non-performers have been the number one choice to be tossed overboard this year.<\/p>\n<p>That said, it&#8217;s not by definition a clear cut proposition as some have also experienced bad news over the period and some share prices have started to recover already towards the end of the month (June).<\/p>\n<p>The FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio owns three stocks that might well have been impacted over the weeks past with returns negative against a firm uptrend for the index and the portfolio overall; CSL ((CSL)), Woolworths Group ((WOW)), and Dicker Data ((DDR)).<\/p>\n<p>All three have been held back for different reasons; all three are kept in portfolio ahead of better times to surely follow. The worst performer is Dicker Data. As a smaller cap proposition, this company is most likely the least well-known among investors.<\/p>\n<p>Time for a general review and re-assessment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[59],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fnarena-weekly","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FNArena&#039;s Special News Alert - 25 September 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/27\/fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FNArena&#039;s Special News Alert - 25 September 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In today&#039;s Weekly Insights:  -Dicker Data; Megatrends Without Covid-Lockdowns -Ask FNArena  By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor  This week marks the end of fiscal 2025 (Monday June 30th) and yet another year of double digit return for the local market (as measured by the ASX200).  Below the surface, another regularly recurring phenomenon has equally come to its end; tax loss selling.  It&#039;s a real thing, every year around late-May until the final day of June, but precisely how and where the impact is felt is very much determined by general market trends and conditions.  This year, the strong market performance has very much relied upon large cap Financials, with the banks in pole position, Growth stocks and the Technology sector, with miners (outside of gold), energy companies, staples and healthcare the notable laggards.  Equally important: small cap stocks without positive momentum remain in the unloved basket.  The share market can be as re-assuring and comforting as it can be frustrating when holding small cap laggards that keep on lagging.  Guess which stocks investors have been selling out from to reduce their tax liability? My guess is small cap non-performers have been the number one choice to be tossed overboard this year.  That said, it&#039;s not by definition a clear cut proposition as some have also experienced bad news over the period and some share prices have started to recover already towards the end of the month (June).  The FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio owns three stocks that might well have been impacted over the weeks past with returns negative against a firm uptrend for the index and the portfolio overall; CSL ((CSL)), Woolworths Group ((WOW)), and Dicker Data ((DDR)).  All three have been held back for different reasons; all three are kept in portfolio ahead of better times to surely follow. The worst performer is Dicker Data. As a smaller cap proposition, this company is most likely the least well-known among investors.  Time for a general review and re-assessment.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/27\/fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-27T01:05:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fnarena.com\/ckfinder\/userfiles\/files\/2025\/09\/US%20Equities%20upon%20resuming%20Fed%20rate%20cuts%20-%20Franklin%20Templeton%20Institute.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mike Avey\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mike Avey\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/27\\\/fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/index.php\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/27\\\/fnarenas-special-news-alert-25-september-2025\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mike Avey\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/abingdonwealth.com.au\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c\"},\"headline\":\"FNArena&#8217;s Special News Alert &#8211; 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Megatrends Without Covid-Lockdowns -Ask FNArena  By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor  This week marks the end of fiscal 2025 (Monday June 30th) and yet another year of double digit return for the local market (as measured by the ASX200).  Below the surface, another regularly recurring phenomenon has equally come to its end; tax loss selling.  It's a real thing, every year around late-May until the final day of June, but precisely how and where the impact is felt is very much determined by general market trends and conditions.  This year, the strong market performance has very much relied upon large cap Financials, with the banks in pole position, Growth stocks and the Technology sector, with miners (outside of gold), energy companies, staples and healthcare the notable laggards.  Equally important: small cap stocks without positive momentum remain in the unloved basket.  The share market can be as re-assuring and comforting as it can be frustrating when holding small cap laggards that keep on lagging.  Guess which stocks investors have been selling out from to reduce their tax liability? My guess is small cap non-performers have been the number one choice to be tossed overboard this year.  That said, it's not by definition a clear cut proposition as some have also experienced bad news over the period and some share prices have started to recover already towards the end of the month (June).  The FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio owns three stocks that might well have been impacted over the weeks past with returns negative against a firm uptrend for the index and the portfolio overall; CSL ((CSL)), Woolworths Group ((WOW)), and Dicker Data ((DDR)).  All three have been held back for different reasons; all three are kept in portfolio ahead of better times to surely follow. The worst performer is Dicker Data. As a smaller cap proposition, this company is most likely the least well-known among investors.  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