{"id":7414,"date":"2025-09-19T23:20:01","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7414"},"modified":"2025-09-19T23:20:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:20:02","slug":"bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bassanese Bites: Pondering payrolls – September 1 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pondering payrolls<\/h1>\n\n\n

Due to travel commitments, this is an abbreviated edition of Bites without charts.<\/em><\/p>\n

Global week in review<\/h2>\n

Global markets were fairly subdued last week, with the S&P 500 edging down 0.1%. Trump\u2019s battle with the Fed was a focus of attention, while Friday\u2019s key US inflation report was in line with expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Limits of power\u00a0<\/h2>\n

The checks and balances of the US political system remained under stress last week, with US President Trump seeking to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook and a US court ruling many of the President\u2019s\u00a0tariff hikes illegal<\/a>. Market reactions have remained contained to date as both matters are still winding their way through the judicial process. For now, Fed Governor Cook remains in place, and so do Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

Sticky inflation, easing economic growth\u00a0<\/h2>\n

In terms of economic data, annualised Q2 US GDP growth was revised modestly higher from 3.1% to 3.3%, with growth in consumer spending revised up from 1.4% to a still subdued 1.6%. The solid GDP gain was partly payback from the 0.5% annualised decline in Q1 GDP. Looking through the quarterly volatility caused by the surge and decline in imports ahead of Trump\u2019s tariffs, overall US economic growth still appears to have shifted down a gear in H1 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Most important last week, however, was the July consumer inflation report. Core prices rose 0.3% \u2013 in line with expectations \u2013 causing annual core inflation to edge up from 2.8% to 2.9%. Markets still assign a high probability of a September rate cut, on the Fed\u2019s apparent view that the labour market is softening. We\u2019ll clearly learn more when the August payrolls report is released this Friday.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

Global week ahead: August payrolls<\/h2>\n

As noted above, Friday\u2019s US payrolls report will be critical to the Fed outlook. A strong employment bounce back of more than 200k or so would pour cold water over the idea that the labour market is weakening, and make the Fed look foolish (or politically compromised) if it went ahead with a rate cut this month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As it stands, however, markets anticipate an employment gain of only 74k \u2013 broadly in line with the 73k gain in July \u2013 with the unemployment rate expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%. Such a result would likely be weak enough to keep prospects for a rate cut this month alive and well. It could be a case of \u2018bad news is good news\u2019 for markets this week.<\/p>\n

Also of note this week will be the ISM reports for manufacturing and services, both should still show the US economy holding up well despite suffering from a pipeline of pricing pressures.<\/p>\n

Global share market trends<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s only tentative so far, but the US\/technology\/growth\/large cap outperformance trend since early April has come off the boil a little in recent weeks. In its place has been a resumption of Japanese outperformance and even early signs of a bounce in small-cap performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/h2>\n

Australian week in review<\/h2>\n

The key highlight last week was the disappointing\u00a0July monthly CPI report<\/a>, with trimmed mean annual inflation leaping from a benign 2.1% to a less pleasing 2.7%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

While the RBA will see another monthly CPI report on 24 September \u2013 ahead of its next meeting over September 29-30 \u2013 the ongoing volatility in the monthly inflation reports will make it hard for the RBA to cut rates again this month, barring a major local\/global growth scare. Markets currently attach only a 30% chance of a rate cut this month.<\/p>\n

My base case remains the next rate cut will come in November, on Melbourne Cup day, assuming the Q3 CPI report shows annual trimmed mean inflation no more than 2.6% (from 2.7% in Q2).<\/p>\n

Although inflation has eased nicely over the past year, one lingering concern is the degree to which government cost-of-living support measures in areas such as electricity have indirectly biased down underlying inflation measures.\u00a0<\/p>\n

After all, although underlying measures of inflation such as the trimmed mean strip out the most volatile price movements (such as electricity prices over the past year) large changes in the prices of certain items can indirectly influence underlying inflation estimates as they can shift the central point of the distribution of prices changes among remaining items. For example, a sharp drop in electricity prices can cause CPI items that usually have low price increases \u2013 typically excluded from trimmed mean calculations \u2013 to be included. As such, this can indirectly drag down trimmed mean CPI estimates. The same effect works in reverse when electricity prices rise strongly.<\/p>\n

\n

Therefore, it is possible the decline in underlying inflation may not have been as significant as we\u2019ve been led to believe!<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Last week also saw the end of the Australian full-year reporting season. While individual company reports were mixed as usual, the past saw month saw the expected decline in S&P\/ASX 200 FY25 earnings increase to -1.7% (from -0.6%). This largely reflects further downgrades in the materials (mining) sector. The market anticipates a 4.5% bounce back in market earnings in FY26 (again, largely thanks to a rebound in mining profits), although earnings estimates still remain under downward pressure.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Australian week ahead<\/h2>\n

The local highlight this week will be Q2 GDP on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Markets anticipate a modest 0.5% gain in GDP, following a 0.2% gain in Q1, suggesting Australia\u2019s economic recovery remains very gradual after an encouraging 0.6% lift in Q4 GDP last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Why? Overall consumer spending remains subdued, while there\u2019s been a step down in previously robust public demand, with private investment and housing construction not as yet picking up much of the slack.<\/p>\n

A very weak Q2 GDP report could heighten expectations for an RBA rate cut this month, but the RBA would still likely feel under pressure to wait\u00a0 for confirmation of benign inflation with the Q3 CPI report in late October.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Australian share market trends<\/h2>\n

In terms of local equity trends, tentative signs of a rotation from financial to resource stocks remain in place, with markets perhaps feeling the worst could be over for earnings downgrades in the latter sector. There was also a notable bounce in small-cap performance last week!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Have a great week!<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Click here to read my full post<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global week in review<\/p>\n

Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0<\/p>\n

Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation!<\/p>\n

While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is this good news?<\/p>\n

From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bassanese-bites","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nBassanese Bites: Pondering payrolls - September 1 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bassanese Bites: Pondering payrolls - September 1 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global week in review Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0 Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0 Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. 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From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0 That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0 There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.","og_url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/","og_site_name":"Abingdon Wealth","article_published_time":"2025-09-19T23:20:01+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-09-19T23:20:02+00:00","author":"Mike Avey","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Mike Avey","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/"},"author":{"name":"Mike Avey","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#\/schema\/person\/8da42c906cebd4d6b6f6134563a3a92c"},"headline":"Bassanese Bites: Pondering payrolls – September 1 2025","datePublished":"2025-09-19T23:20:01+00:00","dateModified":"2025-09-19T23:20:02+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/"},"wordCount":1028,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.betashares.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/chart1.png","keywords":["format"],"articleSection":["Bassanese Bites"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/","url":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-pondering-payrolls-september-1-2025\/","name":"Bassanese Bites: Pondering payrolls - 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