{"id":7411,"date":"2025-09-19T23:13:58","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:13:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7411"},"modified":"2025-09-19T23:15:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:15:53","slug":"bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-8-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-8-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bassanese Bites: Stagflation stress – September 8 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stagflation stress<\/h1>\n\n\n

Due to travel commitments, this is an abbreviated edition of Bites without charts.<\/em><\/p>\n

Global week in review<\/h2>\n

Global equity markets inched ahead last week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% to a new record high. After initially rising on public debt concerns, US bond yields eventually fell as more evidence emerged of a slowing in the US labour market. US 10-year bond yields fell 0.15% to 4.08%, with markets now not only sure the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% this month but also attaching a\u00a010% probability of a 0.5% rate cut<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Last week began with tremors in global bond markets, as a sudden apparent upsurge in investors\u2019 concerns with the public debt outlook \u2013 and maybe the independence of the US Federal Reserve \u2013 led to higher bond yields and associated weakness in equity markets. Political instability in France, which also has a worrying budget deficit, added to the bond market gyrations.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

All these concerns were quickly forgotten as the week progressed, however, with growing evidence of a weakening in the US labour market. Job openings and then private ADP payrolls both came in weaker than expected, with the icing on the cake being Friday\u2019s official payrolls data, which revealed a modest 22k employment gain in August (markets were expecting +75k). Revised data also showed employment actually fell by 13k in June although it bounced back 79k in July. Despite the weak employment growth, the unemployment rate only edged slightly higher to 4.3% from 4.2% \u2013 reflecting weaker growth in labour supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n

All up, it seems increasingly clear that the tariff mayhem over recent months has now led to a freeze on hiring plans by many US businesses. A slowdown in immigration is adding to the drop off in jobs growth. At the same time, persistently firm inflation is eating into household real incomes and slowing consumer spending. All this need not imply a recession, but it is a timely reminder that Trump\u2019s tariff uncertainty and crackdown on illegal immigration is finally having consequences in terms of both demand and supply in the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So far at least, however, Wall Street is taking the evidence of economic weakening as a case of \u201cbad news is good news\u201d \u2013 in that it at least means the Fed is even more likely to cut interest rates this month. Markets may also be hoping that the\u00a0Trump \u201cTACO\u201d trade<\/a>\u00a0could come back into play, with the President less likely to keep wielding his tariff stick around if it looks to be hurting the economy.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Global week ahead: US CPI<\/h2>\n

Pressure on US markets could intensify this week with the release of the August Consumer Price Index on Thursday (US time). Core prices are again expected to rise 0.3%, which would push up the annual rate from 3.1% to 3.2%. The Producer Price Index is released a day earlier and is also expected to rise 0.3%. Firm inflation \u2013 and especially any upward surprise \u2013 following last week\u2019s news of a slowing labour market could add to market chatter around short-run \u201cstagflation\u201d risks in the US economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday. With rates already down to 2%, core inflation a little above the 2% target and the economy holding up okay, the ECB seems in little rush to cut rates again anytime soon \u2013 although it will likely retain an easing policy bias.<\/p>\n

Australian week in review<\/h2>\n

The key highlight last week was the modestly stronger-than-expected\u00a0Q2 GDP report<\/a>. The economy grew 0.6% in the June quarter, helped by a surprisingly solid 0.9% gain in consumer spending. The ABS itself suggested consumer spending could have been boosted by increased tourism \u201cdriven by people taking time off from work due to the proximity of the Easter and ANZAC Day public holiday.\u201d As such, some of the welcome strength in consumer spending might just be a seasonal quirk, with potential payback in the September quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Renewed weakness in housing construction and ongoing weakness in business investment was less pleasing. Long strong public demand has moderated this year, with the slack so far only being taken up by a potentially temporary lift in consumer spending.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Either way, the better-than-expected GDP result likely reduced the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates this month, especially after last week\u2019s strong bounce back in\u00a0monthly trimmed mean annual inflation<\/a>\u00a0from 2.1% to 2.7%. My base case remains the RBA will wait until November to cut rates again and only provided the Q2 CPI shows a further easing in annual trimmed mean inflation from 2.7% to 2.6% or less.<\/p>\n

Australian week ahead<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s only second tier data due out this week with the National Australia Bank business survey tomorrow and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute measure of consumer confidence on Wednesday. Both reports are likely to suggest further modest gains in business and consumer sentiment respectively, given last week\u2019s better than expected GDP report and ongoing hopes of lower interest rates in coming months.<\/p>\n

Have a great week!<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Click to read the Full Report<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global week in review<\/p>\n

Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0<\/p>\n

Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation!<\/p>\n

While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is this good news?<\/p>\n

From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bassanese-bites","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nBassanese Bites: Stagflation stress - September 8 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-8-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bassanese Bites: Stagflation stress - September 8 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global week in review Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0 Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0 Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation! While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0 Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0 Is this good news? 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