{"id":7408,"date":"2025-09-19T23:10:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/?p=7408"},"modified":"2025-09-19T23:10:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T23:10:08","slug":"bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-15-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-15-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bassanese Bites: Fed Accompli – September 15 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Accompli<\/h1>\n\n\n

Global week in review<\/h2>\n
\n

Global week in review<\/h2>\n

Global equities moved higher last week in a case of \u2018bad news is good news\u2019, with ongoing signs of softening in the US labour market all but confirming prospects of a Fed rate cut this week. Also helping were two US inflation reports still suggesting only limited tariff flow-through into prices.<\/p>\n

\"\"\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Two reports last week highlighted the weaker outlook for the US labour market. For starters, there was a large downward revision to US employment growth over the past year, after the annual benchmarking of monthly establishment survey employment data to other wage and tax data was completed. Average monthly growth over the year to March 2025 dropped from 147k to only 70k, resulting in the level of employment being 991k less than previously thought!<\/p>\n

While large annual historic revisions to US employment growth are not unusual, it\u2019s fair to say this year\u2019s change was at the larger end of the usual range. US President Donald Trump likes to claim political bias in the data reporting but the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests one problem in recent years has been a post-COVID drop in survey response rates \u2013 which adds to sampling error in the monthly employment estimates.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Source: Macrobond, BLS, ING<\/small><\/p>\n

Also on the soft side was a 27k spike in weekly jobless claims to 263k. As evident in the Bloomberg chart below, the occasional spike higher is also not unusual \u2013 and need not flag impending labour market doom provided it drops back down again soon. Seasonal quirks and a spike in Texas claims, due to possible delayed hurricane related claims, are thought to have contributed to last week\u2019s outsized increase.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Bloomberg, US Labor Department<\/small><\/p>\n

Equity markets took these results in their stride, especially as they only heightened the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates this week.<\/p>\n

Markets were also relieved by still limited evidence of tariff effects on US inflation. Producer prices for August were notably lower than expected, while the 0.3% increase in core consumer prices was again in line with expectations. Of course, while US inflation has not spiked higher in recent months, it is still travelling sideways at a level above the Fed\u2019s 2%\u00a0 inflation target.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Moreover, for all the angst over the recent weakening in the US labour market, the NFIB small business survey also released last week suggested sentiment remained at relatively healthy levels \u2013 which is a good counter-recessionary signal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The European Central Bank met on Thursday and left rates on hold as widely expected.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Global share market trends<\/h2>\n

Although the US market is not outperforming as clearly as has been evident in recent years, global growth is still beating value and the NASDAQ-100 is still tending to outperform in global markets. Japan and emerging markets are also doing relatively well, whereas Europe has come off the boil.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Global week ahead: Federal Reserve\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Thursday\u2019s Federal Reserve meeting will be the highlight of the week. A 0.25% rate cut is widely expected, with markets attaching a small 5% chance to a 0.5% cut.<\/p>\n

Also of note in the meeting will be an update of the Fed\u2019s economic and interest rate forecasts. With upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, markets are unclear whether the Fed will signal more or less rate cuts over the coming year in its \u2018dot plot\u2019 of Fed member forecasts for the Fed funds rate. Back in June, the \u2018dot plot\u2019 suggested two further rate cuts this year and one rate cut next year.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Australian week in review<\/h2>\n

There was only limited local data last week with a small retracement in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence and a small bump higher in NAB\u2019s survey of business conditions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Australian share market trends<\/h2>\n

In terms of local equity trends, tentative signs of a rotation from financial to resource stocks remain in place, with markets perhaps feeling the worst could be over for earnings downgrades in the latter sector. There\u2019s also been a notable bounce in relative small-cap performance in recent months. Quality continues to perform well while the relative performance of the local technology sector has moderated of late.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Australian week ahead<\/h2>\n

The local highlight this week will be Thursday\u2019s August employment report, with a moderate 22k gain in employment expected, which should keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.<\/p>\n

If so, this would confirm that the pace of employment growth has slowed in recent months \u2013 though not dramatically so. It in part reflects not only weakening demand but a slowing in immigration and a reduction in labour supply. Barring a severely weak report, this should keep market expectations for an RBA rate cut later this month at the currently fairly low level of 15%.<\/p>\n

Have a great week!<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n

Click to read the Full Report<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global week in review<\/p>\n

Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0<\/p>\n

Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation!<\/p>\n

While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Is this good news?<\/p>\n

From a markets perspective, all this is great news \u2013 there are good grounds to think that tariff uncertainty will soon be behind us and the overall level of tariffs won\u2019t be enough to tip the US economy into recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, we do likely face a few months of higher-than-usual US monthly inflation gains (as some of the tariffs are passed through to prices) but markets seem well prepared for this. Provided this remains a one-off hit to the price\u00a0level\u00a0\u2013 and is not entrenched into higher\u00a0inflation\u00a0through a wage-price spiral \u2013 it\u2019s an acceptable outcome for markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There will also likely be some hit to US profits and household real incomes, which could temporarily slow economic growth. But the tariff hit is coming at a time of still-resilient US economic growth and easing underlying inflation pressures. Offsetting the tariff hit (to an extent) will be reduced trade uncertainty and the Fed waiting in the wings to cut interest rates further as required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-7408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bassanese-bites","tag-format","post-no-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nBassanese Bites: Fed Accompli - September 15 2025 - Abingdon Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abingdonwealth.com.au\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bassanese-bites-fed-accompli-september-15-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bassanese Bites: Fed Accompli - September 15 2025 - Abingdon Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global week in review Global equities pushed higher last week, helped by solid US earnings reports and the completion of more major US trade deals.\u00a0 Trump causes Japan and Europe to blink\u00a0 Say what you like about US President Donald Trump but he does appear to have secured some fairly good trade deals with both Japan and the European Union \u2013 at least from his perspective. Both major US trading partners have agreed to a 15% tariff on most of their goods imported into the US, along with a commitment to invest billions into the US economy \u2013 and without trade retaliation! While this still amounts to a tax on US corporations and\/or households, markets will likely construe these deals as a win for Trump \u2013 major economies are rolling over just to get a deal done so we can all move on with our lives. As I noted last week, to the extent that most trading partners will face similarly stiff tariffs, they should not lose much competitiveness (at least against each other) with regard to selling into the US market.\u00a0 Reports suggest an updated deal with China is also in the wings.\u00a0 Is this good news? 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